UPDATE: 2024/12/15 07:48 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Kraven The Hunter's Projections Slide $1 Million Lower Than Saturday Estimates

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Kraven the Hunter cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Ariana DeBose, Fred Hechinger, Alessandro Nivola, Christopher Abbott, and Russell Crowe.

Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Kraven the Hunter is projected to close out its opening weekend with a 3-day domestic gross of $11 million. This is not enough for the movie to topple the holdover Thanksgiving hits Moana 2 and Wicked, which maintain their positions at the top of the chart, letting the Spider-Man Universe movie land at No. 3 in its debut. Additionally, it has earned the worst opening weekend of the entire franchise, coming in below the previous record-holder, which was Madame Web with a $15.3 million debut.

The weekend's other new release, the anime prequel The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, has also underperformed. It is set to open at No. 5 with $5.4 million, which marks the worst theatrical debut for the Peter Jackson-produced franchise, earning roughly one-ninth of The Fellowship of the Ring's $47.2 million debut, which was the previous LOTR low. However, it has a relatively tight budget of $30 million, which should help cushion it in the long run. Below, see a full breakdown of the Top 5 movies at the domestic box office for the weekend:

#

Title

3-Day Total

Cumulative (Domestic)

1

Moana 2

$26.6 million

$337.5 million (weekend 3)

2

Wicked

$22.5 million

$359 million (weekend 4)

3

Kraven the Hunter

$11 million

$11 million (weekend 1)

4

Gladiator II

$7.8 million

$145.9 million (weekend 4)

5

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

$5.4 million

$5.4 million (weekend 1)

With two new releases on the chart, however low they debuted, this means that there has been some significant movement from the previous weekend. Gladiator II fell from No. 3 to No. 4 with a healthy 38% drop, while the Tollywood outing Pushpa: The Rule - Part 2 fell from No. 4 to No. 8 with a $1.6 million haul representing a 67% drop, though it has now ed the $10 million domestic milestone. Meanwhile, the lukewarm Chris Evans and Dwayne Johnson-led action-comedy Red One fell from No. 5 to No. 6 with $4.4 million at a 36% drop.

"Tollywood" is the word for Telugu-language cinema from India, a category that also includes the Oscar-winning 2022 smash hit RRR.

Elsewhere on the chart, the previous weekend's new release,Y2K, has fallen out of the Top 10 completely, landing at No. 11 with a $685,000 gross at a 68% drop after debuting at No. 9. It is being considerably outperformed by the 10th anniversary re-release of Christopher Nolan's Interstellar, which has only dropped one position, falling from No. 6 to No. 7, with an incredible 28% drop and a $3.3 million 3-day total. Just like the Coraline re-release earlier in the year, the movie is proving that bringing movies back to theaters can pay huge dividends if timed well.

What This Opening Weekend Means For Kraven The Hunter

It Probably Won't Make Its Money Back

While the superhero universe has consistently had trouble connecting with audiences outside of the Venom subfranchise, the Kraven the Hunter release is seeing those returns diminish even more from the heights promised by the first two Venom movies, which both debuted above $80 million and ended up grossing more than $500 million apiece worldwide, earning $1.36 billion between them. Below, see a breakdown of how Kraven compares to the opening weekends of every movie in Sony's Spider-Man Universe and their overall worldwide box office performance:

Title

Opening Weekend

Worldwide Box Office

Venom (2018)

$80.2 million

$856 million

Venom: Let There be Carnage (2021)

$90 million

$506.8 million

Morbius (2022)

$39 million

$167.5 million

Madame Web (2024)

$15.3 million

$100.5 million

Venom: The Last Dance (2024)

$51 million

$472.9 million

Kraven the Hunter (2024)

$11 million

TBD

If the new movie maintains a trajectory consistently behind that of the notable flop Madame Web, which earned a dismal 11% Rotten Tomatoes score, it will most likely gross less than $100 million worldwide. This would be a crushing result, as the Kraven the Hunter budget is estimated to be between $110 and $130 million, likely meaning that it would need to earn at least $275 million in order to break even. Its own Rotten Tomatoes score of 15% probably means it will not earn a word-of-mouth boost to help launch it above its competitors, either.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

There Is Still Hope For 2024 Blockbusters

With both Kraven the Hunter and Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (which is debuting with roughly $5 million) underperforming in their opening weekends, the box office will need another jolt of blockbuster energy if Moana 2 and Wicked are to be toppled. However, the Christmas box office period is just around the corner, bringing with it the promise of both Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King, so it seems likely that this weekend's theatrical crash will prove to be a speed bump on a relatively smooth road through the end of the year.

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Source: Variety

Kraven the Hunter Poster

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Kraven the Hunter
Release Date
December 13, 2024
Runtime
127 Minutes
Director
J.C. Chandor

WHERE TO WATCH

Streaming

Kraven the Hunter explores the origin story of Sergei Kravinoff, known as Kraven, as he navigates his tumultuous relationship with his father, Nikolai. This path of vengeance sets Kraven on a journey to become a formidable hunter with a reputation for fearsome brutality.

Writers
Art Marcum, Richard Wenk, Matt Holloway
Main Genre
Adventure
Budget
110 million
Studio(s)
Sony
Distributor(s)
Sony