Andrew Lincoln portrayed Rick Grimes, the protagonist of The Walking Dead, until his departure from the series in season 9, episode 5, "What Comes After." There was a chance that Rick's demise could have come much sooner at the hands of his former best friend, Jon Bernthal's sinister Shane Walsh, which would have made the world of The Walking Dead very different.
During the first two seasons of The Walking Dead, Shane was corrupted by the stresses of the apocalypse as well as his own jealousy of Rick, gradually turning him into the antagonist of the series. By the end of season 2, Shane had devised a plan to eliminate Rick and take over the group himself, culminating in the penultimate episode of season 2, "Better Angels," which sees Shane lead Rick into the woods to kill him. However, Rick turns the tables at the last minute and kills Shane instead, creating a key turning point in the show and in Rick's character development.
Subsequent seasons of The Walking Dead show Rick fully taking on the role of leader for the main group of survivors, sometimes using brutal methods to keep his new family safe and eventually seemingly sacrificing himself to save everyone from a herd of walkers. It's often easy to forget that the initial seasons saw Rick and Shane battle for command of the group since Rick became the perfect leader at the end of the world. However, it's interesting to think back and imagine what The Walking Dead would have become if Shane had killed Rick at the end of season 2.
Rick Would’ve Turned (And Carl Would’ve Put Him Down)
After Rick had killed Shane in The Walking Dead season 2's penultimate episode, he is met on the hill by his young son, Chandler Riggs' Carl Grimes, who seemingly holds a gun to his father's head. However, it's revealed that the boy had been aiming at a reanimated Shane who he puts down to protect Rick. This act marks the first time Carl shoots anything in the show, and while Carl putting down a zombified Shane certainly had an effect on the young boy, it would have been far more twisted if the roles were reversed. If Shane had killed Rick, this would've played out the same only with Carl putting down his own father.
This turn of events would have probably caused Carl to become a much colder and more aggressive character, since he wouldn't have the and guidance of his father. Shane killing Rick at this moment wouldn't have had an immediate impact on the series, the nearby herd of walkers would've still heard the gunshots and overrun the farm, and the group would have still realized that everyone turns into a walker no matter how they die. Not everyone would've made it off the farm as Shane wouldn't have made the same decisions as Rick did, such as burning the barn to draw walkers away from the house.
Shane Would’ve Killed Daryl And Glenn
Shane played the long game during season 2, using the group's prisoner, Randall, to his advantage. In order to lead Rick into the woods without raising suspicion, Shane released Randall and killed him, not realizing that the prisoner would turn into a walker despite not being bitten. The reanimated Randall was discovered by Daryl and Glenn, who both instantly grew wary of Shane and confused as to how Randall turned without being bitten. So if Shane had killed Rick and reed the group after the destruction of the farm, it's likely that Daryl and Glenn would approach him about Randall, consequently putting a target on their backs.
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The Group Might Not Have Taken The Prison
After a winter on the road after the farm was overrun, The Walking Dead season 3 sees the hardened group of survivors take out several walkers and find their new home in a prison. It's unlikely that every member of the group would have survived the winter under Shane's leadership, as it was Rick's tactical thinking and stern demeanor that kept the group alive, whereas Shane tended to be more reckless. Even if they had, it was Rick's determination and faith in the group that led them all to take the prison without losing any .
Perhaps it would be more likely that the group would come across the prison, notice the field full of walkers, and decide to move on as Shane wouldn't have trusted the group's skills to make the prison safe. If this had been the case, the group could have come across the nearby town of Woodbury, met David Morrissey's charming Governor, and could have even fallen under his spell just like Andrea did after being separated from the group at the end of The Walking Dead season 2. This would have led to some interesting interactions with characters such as Michonne and Merle - who would surely be curious about the whereabouts of his brother.
Lori Might Have Survived Judith’s Birth
There is one good thing that would've come out of Rick's demise at the end of The Walking Dead season 2 - Lori might have survived. In the original timeline, Rick's wife spent her entire pregnancy on the road before suddenly giving birth to baby Judith in the prison, causing her death due to complications with the birth. If Rick was out of the picture and Shane had led the group to Woodbury, Lori might be in a safer location to give birth, perhaps with even medical professionals to assist, meaning she might have actually survived the birth of her daughter with Rick, Judith Grimes.
Before Rick ed the group in Atlanta during The Walking Dead season 1, episode 3, "Tell It to the Frogs," everybody believed the future leader had died in hospital from his gunshot wound, providing Shane the opportunity to start a sexual relationship with Lori, which abruptly ended when Rick returned and became the root of much of Shane's jealousy of Rick. If Rick had been killed, it's likely that Shane would have sought to reignite his relationship with Lori, serving as a father to Carl and Judith after her birth, especially when considering that the question of who Judith's biological father is has never been definitely answered. If Lori had survived Judith's birth, Shane would have certainly asserted his fatherhood over the child.
The Group Might Have Still Made It To Washington D.C.
It can be assumed that, eventually, Woodbury would have still fallen, perhaps at the hands of another group akin to the prison during The Walking Dead season 4. The difference here would be that the entire group would leave the town together rather than being completely split up as they were after the assault on the prison, perhaps even still following the train tracks, lured by the signs leading to Terminus. It was on these tracks that Glenn and Tara bumped into the well-prepared Abraham, Rosita, and Eugene on their way to Washington D.C., who recruited the group on their mission to find a cure for the zombie outbreak.
It would have been fun to see how the trio would have interacted with the entire group on the train tracks had they all been together, and it still seems believable that Eugene's lie would fool everyone either way. Shane would have wanted to find a cure perhaps more than anyone else thanks to his desperation to have a normal life with Lori, Carl, and Judith. While this turn of events would've negated the need to meet Father Gabriel or take a detour to Atlanta to save Beth, it would have still pushed the narrative forward and expanded The Walking Dead across the country.
Alexandria Would’ve Been Overrun Much Sooner
After struggling to adjust to suburban life in Alexandria, The Walking Dead season 6 sees the main group of survivors devise a plan to lure a massive herd of walkers away from their community. The plan to use noise, barriers, and lures to avert the herd overrunning their town mostly came from the mind of Rick Grimes himself, meaning that if he had been killed way back in season 2, this plan probably would have completely fallen apart, if it had been formed at all. Shane doesn't seem like the kind of character who would have been able to think up such a complicated and delicate plan.
Without Rick, Alexandria would have been overrun by the entire herd discovered in the quarry in The Walking Dead season 6, episode 1, "First Time Again," to the point of becoming uncontrollable, forcing the survivors to abandon the town and move on. It's possible that they could come across one of the other local communities such as the Hilltop Colony, the Kingdom, Oceanside, or even the Saviors at the Sanctuary. Even if the group manage to assimilate with another group, it would be a certainty that many of Alexandria and the original Atlanta group would lose their lives during this time.
The War Against Negan Would’ve Been Very Different
The relationship between Rick Grimes and Jeffrey Dean Morgan's charismatic villain, Negan, worked so well because the latter threatened the safety of Rick's family. If Shane had been in Rick's place during the introduction of the Saviors throughout season 6, it's possible that he would have bailed at the first given opportunity, taking Lori, Carl, and Judith with him, as those are the only people who he truly cared for. It's unlikely that Shane would have started a war against the Saviors, in fact, it's possible he could've ed the twisted group of survivors.
The Saviors' community relies on a distinct class system built on greed and selfishness, something which can be seen in Shane's character development during the first two seasons of The Walking Dead. Shane feels entitled to Lori and Carl, and aims to claim them as his family no matter the cost. He constantly thrives on his self-interest and shows a lack of care for the other of their community. These behaviors wouldn't change without Rick around, in fact, it's possible they could become even more extreme and cause Shane to make some questionable decisions, perhaps even ing the Saviors if it meant that he and his family would benefit from it.
The Walking Dead Probably Would’ve Ended A Long Time Ago
Throughout the entire run of The Walking Dead, Rick showed a care for his newfound family and would have done anything to protect them, including sacrificing himself. This is something that Shane would never have emulated if he had taken the position of leader. In fact, his leadership would have probably had the opposite effect with Shane perhaps alienating several causing them to leave and fend for themselves, and Shane surely getting many people killed, whether directly killing them himself or his decisions indirectly causing their demise.
If Rick Grimes had been killed by Shane in the penultimate episode of The Walking Dead season 2, the world that came after would have been a much darker place. The show certainly wouldn't have been as entertaining as it became, Shane's villainy would become very irritating, very quickly, and the show probably would've ended a long time ago instead of after 11 seasons and several The Walking Dead spinoffs. Luckily, Rick prevailed and led the main group of survivors into a world that has now been developed into some sort of civilization, providing hope for both characters and audiences of The Walking Dead.